by: Clifford F. Thies

"I am making a prediction right now that the Republican Party will take both houses of Congress" -- Dick Morris

Ten seats down, with the Vice President being a Democrat, it does not seem possible for the Republicans to take the U.S. in 2010. Yet, Dick Morris says they will.

Video of Morris on Hannity at FreedomsLighthouse.com

Morris names the seats he believes the GOP will take in the Senate: Six fairly easy pickups according to Morris - Dodd in Connecticut, Delaware, Reid in Nevada, Lincoln in Arkansas, Specter in Pennsylvania, and Colorado. He believes the Governor of North Dakota could run and beat Dorgan, and that Rudy Giuliani can run and beat Gillibrand in New York. Morris also thinks Kirk can win in Illinois to take that seat and that Fiorina can beat Boxer in California. That's a pickup of 10. He also mentioned three other seats that could be in play - Washington, New Jersey and Oregon.I have been looking at recent polling data for some of the contests, the tendency of the state in Presidential elections, and a summary of the opinions of the pundits (not including Morris).

I agree with Morris about the AR, CO, CT, DE, IL, NV, NY (if Giuliani runs), ND (if Hoeven runs) and PA. That's nine. More correctly, I should say 7 to 9, assuming Republicans win in every state in which they are at least a toss-up, including win in four states - KY, MO, NH and OH - where Republicans seats are in play.

So, how does Morris get to 11? First, he thinks Carly Fiorina can defeat Barbara Boxer in California. Second, he thinks Republicans could maybe win in one or more of: NJ, OR and WI. If we assume Morris meant to say OR, WA and WI, he would at least be making some sense. I think all four of these seats are a bit out of reach or, to use the expression Morris used, "second tier" opportunities. The difference between California and the other three states in this category is that we have a candidate with star power, who could maybe re-shuffle the deck.

On the other hand, winning the House and picking up at least 5 seats in the Senate would be a spectacular victory.